Here We Are

Well, the day has come. I write at 6:00 AMish ET on election day (aka 10:00 PM Australian Eastern Summer Tme).

So, I said several weeks ago I wanted to see two real bad days for the Republicans before I would believe in Democrat takeovers in both houses. They've had about 1.8 real bad days.

The polling and analysis I consider respectable (Real Clear Politics, Rothenberg, CNN/Time) are giving a pretty good shot to the Dems in the house and a long shot in the senate.

So, I guess it's money down time for us amatuers . Here is my best guess of the results and why.

House : Democrats 222 : Repubilicans 213

Why : Same old story, money, encumbancy, redistricting. People hav been getting excited about a wavw and there is enouigh there for a majority but...The wave is way to small to break through the buffering that all those things provide the Republicans, and produce big results. It was there, maybe, for a while, but good economic news, John Kerry and scare tactics have held the line.

Senate : Democrats 49 : Republicans 51

Why : Montana seems like its going towards the Republicans, and the odds of the Dems getting both Virginia and Missouri are just to long to believe in.

I'll say this. If the Democrats take the senate they should carry Harold Ford, Clare McCaskill and Jim Webb into the chamber shoulder high, with ticker tape. They have all been better than their party machine, and better than it derserved.

Oh, and if that happens the Republicans should see to it that George Allan and Bob Corker are taken out into the Mall, tied down and whupped. Hard. They would've failed their party and they have noone to blame but themselves.

And finally, regardless of the outcome, the Dems should make it clear that John Kerry is not allowed to speak in public without permission. Ever.