CT GOP Goes AWOL

I quick Ooops I was Wrong. Seems there are no statistically significant Republicans in Connecticut. The latest polling (CNN.COM) shows Lieberman (Ind) 44%, Lamont (Dem) 42%, Schleschinger (GOP) 3%(!). So, the danger of dividing the Centre and Left vote and getting a Republican elected appears to be small. OK, so it's a tough state for the GOP, and, in these weird circumstances, Lieberman may be acting as a default GOP choice, but 3%. Oy!

My other concerns about the wisdom of rolling Lieberman stand.

Fear and Loathing in Connecticut

Joe Liebermans loss in the Democratic primary in Connecticut (pauses to check spelling, that silent second 'c' catches me out) was a bit a of a surprise. The punditry is awarding this as a victory to the "netroots" movement and perhaps it is, in part. We should also remember that the good people of Connecticut may have their own reasons.

To the extent that the netroots folks are responsible they may find they've scored an own goal. That Senator Lieberman was well to the edge of the party is unarguable. But tossing him out may have been a cure much worse than the disease. It creates many problems. In a tight, crucial national Senate race it may just place a seat in play. If Lieberman runs as an independent the middle/left half of the general electorate may divide, handing a Republican a majority (which is why preferential voting systems are better, but that's a whole other can of tuna). It has also given the Republicans a handy talking point about the Dems being hostage to extremists etc. That will bite some, at least for a little while. Worst of all it is a diversion of time and money. This is a testing election. Every body and every dollar counts. If the Dems are serious about mounting an insurgency they need to keep a total focus on their actual enemy.

To paraphrase Zaphod Beeblebrox : 8 out of t 10 for the tactical result, but minus several million for strategic intelligence.

And Donald Went Up The Hill Again

So, Donald Rumsfeld went up to Senate Armed Services with the generals in tow and they had a tough time of it. We've seen this before. Will it make any difference? Probably not, although John Abizaid's comments on the danger of civil war in Iraq were not helpful to the Republican cause. That said, I doubt that there is anyone who was going to be turned off by those comments who hadn't already been turned off, or decided for themselves something very similar to what the General said.

The Democrats, Clinton of NY to the fore, did an Ok job of shooting fish in a barrel but I'm not sure they made any particular ground. They did at least avoid the opportunity to screw up and/or go too far.

So, I think we're left where we were. With the likelyhood favouring a change of House majority by a very narrow margin. I'm still looking for two more real bad days for the GOP before I'm going predict a clear majority for the Dems or dismiss the possibility of a narrow GOP survival.