2nd Quarter Scoreboard : Obama

So, here we are 2 quarters in and the results are still coming in but, the shape of the money race is interesting to say the least.

Late in the previous quarter I gave this heavily qualified endorsement of Barack Obama : "... With some very big ifs. If he can continue to fund his campaign through large numbers of small donations from non-corporate sources. If he retains his commitment to thinking things through rather the forming policies for policy's sake. If he can avoid trade offs and debts to interest groups. If (and this is the big one) he can establish a constituency for change that reaches previous non-voters. He just might pull it off and arrive at the White House door, intact, as the sort of leader we need."

So, how is he doing on my ifs since then? The funding results that have just come in are exactly what I wanted. In fact they're ridiculously good. More than 250,000 donors for a clearly bigger total than Hillary has raised. Great. 10/10.

Policy wise his performance so far has been patchy. I, like many, was disappointed in the his health policy announcement. It came off as tepid, almost Hillary 1992 lite. And it's employer based. As many commentators who have looked in some depth at this, including the Kleins, Ezra (the good) and Joe (the not so good), have pointed out, the best shot at universal health cover may well be to move away from the employer mandate. It feels like Obama wimped on that even though he must know it's the real long term goal. His debate performances have been patchy. I feel like he either doesn't get or doesn't trust the format. Which in a way is commendable, but he needs to find a way to give short, punch-through answers without comprising his laudable willingness to look beyond surfaces. Not great. 6/10.

As to bringing in new constituencies. The picture looks good there. Head to head general election polling is a feeble reed indeed at this distance from Nov 08 but, such as it is, it is showing his general appeal holding up well. There also seems to be credible reporting that he is getting active involvement from the prveioulsy unengaged. The funding result with it's many small donors indicates a lot of new voter buy in as well. Just fine. 8/10.

So, we are seeing the right support infrastructure for Obama to get him to the White House door in the way that I wanted. But, we aren't yet seeing the policies. Now that his funding wagon has it's own, very considerable momentum I suggest Barack spends the summer getting the wheels bolted on to the policy engine. Significantly an honest working through of his health position could result in a change of tack. Which could be awkward. It will be worth it in the long run. Onwards and upwards.