Howard Obama Post Game (Swampland 1)

This is the first of several notes that I'm posting here today which I first posted as comments on time.coms Swampland blog over a 2 week period around the time of the Howard Obama fracas and then the Geffen-Clinton-Obama affray.

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On the subject of the coalition, Linda asked that I pass on any wash up from John Howard's Obama brain burst. The latest poll from the Australian (based on interviews done just after Howards teeth met Obama's ankle) came out yesterday with these numbers

Preferred Prime Minister : Howard 37, Rudd 47
(was Howard 40, Rudd 39)

Satisified/Not : Howard 44/46 Rudd 68/13
(was Howard 44/44 Rudd 60/15)

Party Vote Coalition (Howard) 46 Labour 54
(was 44 56)

So, the personal numbers for Howard got worse and his opponent got a big boost. The preferred Prime Minister numbers are a big deal here. A lose on that number hasn't happened to Howard in 10 years in office and the gap is a record in the 21 years this poll has asked that question. It's also significant in that it tends to be a leading indicator response to recent events that shows up in the party vote over the longer run.

There was a slight bobble in the party vote the other way but this appears mostly to consist of minor party votes leaking to the conservatives. I suspect this was wingnuts to Howards right deciding he was one of them after all.

Long story short, it cost him, big time.

Cheney arrives here tomorrow. As you might imagine we're all very thrilled that he's stopping by.

I have this vision that he'll arrive at Howard's house on Sydney habour alighting directly from the deck of a Los Angeles class nuclear sub.

I forgot to say.

From the same poll :
Support for a Stay the Course approach to Iraq : 30%.
Yes, going onto Iraq was a good idea in the first place : 21%

So, really, not so much with the willing for us.