Geffen Loses Focus (Swampland 3)

I had a look through the latest Real Clear Politics poll averages for general election head to heads. A couple of things caught my eye. Giuliani is holding up well against all democrats.

The Dems numbers against the GOP front runners are fairly closely clustered between 41 (Obama v Giuliani) and 46 (Clinton v McCain). The GOP are much more spread out with the floor being down around 30 (Romney v Obama or Edwards). This seems to say that the bedrock support is lower for the GOP than the Dems. Which means that the GOP have an excellent opportunity to commit suicide by nominating the wrong candidate.

It also seems to say that, regardless of who they nominate, the Dems are looking at roughly Gore/Kerry support levels when up against a moderate Republican with good name recoginition.

Which brings me (back on topic) to say that it's really stupid for the Dems to damage each other with independents and uncommitteds by having this sort of school yard spat.

I'd also stretch the numbers to say that neither Obama or Edwards are not that far behind on the electability stakes. Meaning that money, luck and charisma could close the gap. HRC Inc know this which is why they are leaving nothing to chance.

I think we may be confident that Bill is yelling words to that effect at people even as we sit here.